DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z MON 17/03 - 06Z TUE 18/03 2003
ISSUED: 16/03 20:10Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CRETE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AEGEAN SEA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AREA.

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA

SYNOPSIS

A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH IS SITUATED OVER THE BRITISH ISLES. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PRESENT OFF THE MOROCCAN COAST AND A STRONG UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN. THE FORMER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALOMST STATIONARY. NEAR THE LATTER LOW STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN AN INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE. BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING MONDAY.

DISCUSSION

...CRETE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AEGEAN SEA...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN AEGEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF CRETE. WITHIN THE WARM AIR-MASS LATENT INSTABILITY WILL RISE TO A FEW HUNDREDS OF CAPE ON MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS CRETE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MORNING. SOME STORMS ARE LIKELY BOTH NEAR THE WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. WIND SHEAR/HELICITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO CAUSE A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LCL HEIGHTS ARE LOW THERE IS ONLY A SMALL TORNADO THREAT, GIVEN THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW. STILL, ONE OR TWO TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT, WHERE LOCAL BAROCLINICITY MAY AID IN THE FORMATION OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.

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